The most likely cause of the next pandemic will be the “spillover” of a disease from one of a select group of animals with particular immune system traits and interactions with humans.
In this MinuteEarth video, learn why animals that 'live fast and die young' are more likely to pass along new diseases to humans. (Based in part on research by Drs. Barbara Han and Richard Ostfeld.)
References
Keesing, F., and Ostefld, R. (2021). Impacts of biodiversity and biodiversity loss on zoonotic diseases. PNAS, 118 (17) e2023540118. Retrieved from: https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2023540118
Han, B., Schmidt, J.P., Bowden, S., and Drake, J. (2015). Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases. PNAS, 112 (22) 7039-7044. Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1501598112
Balderrama-Gutierrez G, Milovic A, Cook VJ, Islam MN, Zhang Y, Kiaris H, Belisle JT, Mortazavi A, Barbour AG. (2021). An Infection-Tolerant Mammalian Reservoir for Several Zoonotic Agents Broadly Counters the Inflammatory Effects of Endotoxin. mBio.;12(2):e00588-21. Retrieved from: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33849979/
Olival, K., Hosseini, P., Zambrana-Torrelio, C. et al. (2017). Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals. Nature 546, 646–650. Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22975
Martin, L. B., 2nd, Weil, Z. M., & Nelson, R. J. (2007). Immune defense and reproductive pace of life in Peromyscus mice. Ecology, 88(10), 2516–2528. Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.1890/07-0060.1
Johnson Christine K., Hitchens Peta L., Pandit Pranav S., Rushmore Julie, Evans Tierra Smiley, Young Cristin C. W. and Doyle Megan M. (2020). Global shifts in mammalian population trends reveal key predictors of virus spillover risk. Proc. R. Soc. B .2872019273620192736. Retrieved from: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2019.2736
Allen, T., Murray, K.A., Zambrana-Torrelio, C. et al. (2017). Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases. Nat Commun 8, 1124. Retrieved from: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00923-8
Han, Barbara. (2022). Personal communication. Disease Ecologist, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies. https://www.caryinstitute.org/science/our-scientists/dr-barbara-han
