A three-tiered system with “watches,” "warnings” and “emergencies”—like that used for severe weather alerts—would help decision makers and the public to make more informed decisions.
Cary's Barbara Han and John Drake of the University of Georgia Odum School of Ecology call for the creation of a global early warning system for infectious diseases. Such a system would use computer models to tap into environmental, epidemiological and molecular data, gathering the intelligence needed to forecast where disease risk is high and what actions could prevent outbreaks or contain epidemics.
An early warning system would shift the infectious disease paradigm from reactive – where first responders scramble to contain active threats, as in the recent Ebola and Zika outbreaks – to pre-emptive management of risk. Infectious disease intelligence could assess vulnerabilities based on the ebb and flow of risk in real-time, and inform targeted responses that minimize damages.
Citation
B. A. Han, J. M. Drake. Future directions in analytics for infectious disease intelligence: Toward an integrated warning system for emerging pathogens. EMBO reports, 2016; DOI: 10.15252/embr.201642534