This fall, the US experienced an outbreak of fires nationwide, stretching from New Jersey to California. While many of the blazes occurred in fire-prone landscapes, fires in the Northeast — including New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts — came as more of a surprise, fueled by the driest autumn in nearly 50 years. Could fire and drought become a new normal for the Northeastern US, as it has for the West?
Winslow Hansen is a fire and forest ecologist at Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies. He directs the Western Fire and Forest Resilience Collaborative, a fire science hub that aims to co-produce actionable research in collaboration with decision makers tasked with reducing fire risk to people and wildlands.
Below, Hansen shares his thoughts on the fire season, what the climate models project for the Northeast, and lessons he’s learned from working on fires in Western landscapes that could help the Northeast adapt to a potentially more fire-prone future.
In November, Northeast burns included the Jennings Creek Fire on the New York/New Jersey border (5,300+ acres), the Butternut Fire in Great Barrington, MA (1,600+ acres), and the Whitehouse Fire in Ulster County (640+ acres) — to name a few. What’s going on?
We tend to think of the Northeast as water-rich, but this fall, there have been historic drought conditions across much of the region. Simply put, a drought is a long stretch of time without any precipitation. At the peak of the drought, some areas were reporting deficits of 5-9 inches of rain. In mid-November, the Northeast Drought Early Warning System reported abnormal dryness or drought in 93% of the Northeast, with severe drought in parts of Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.
At the same time, temperatures have been unseasonably warm. National Weather Service offices issued an unusually high number of Red Flag Warnings this month. This is when warm temperatures, low humidity, and strong winds combine to create conditions ideal for wildfire combustion and rapid spread. The fires we are seeing are borne of these conditions.
Is this Northeastern drought an anomaly, or a new normal? Isn't climate change supposed to make the region wetter?
It’s not typical for the Northeast to have a drought that extends into autumn. We experienced what is being called ‘climate whiplash.’ We had a wet spring, which allowed a lot of new vegetation to grow, followed by a hot and dry summer, and a warm and dry fall. This parched the landscape. Drought conditions extending after deciduous trees dropped their leaves led to tinderbox conditions with abundant fuel on the ground.
Unfortunately, we don't know how often we might expect to see droughts in the Northeast in the future. We do know that the region experienced historic drought conditions in 2000, 2016, 2020, 2022, and now 2024, so the pattern is already concerning.
We do expect the Northeast to get wetter with climate change. But while climate models can make pretty reliable projections about long-term trends, such as what might happen over the next few decades, they don’t work as well at the scale of months or years. This means we have large uncertainty about the likelihood of future fall droughts in the Northeast. It is a critical area for research.
What role do people play in causing the recent fires in the Northeast?
People start the vast majority of fires nationwide. The upshot is that this means we can play a critical role in reducing fire in places where they are dangerous to people. Respect burn bans, and be vocal with your friends and neighbors. Be willing to adjust your plans. Reschedule activities that can create sparks when the risk of fire is high. Fireworks, shooting, firepits, burning yard waste, outdoor grilling — can all happen another day. If you are a smoker, be extremely careful with your cigarette butts. The expense and risk that people take on when wildfires burn out of control is tremendous.
What lessons are you learning from your Western fire work that can be applied here?
Fires in the Northeast may not be as big as out west, but small, fast-moving fires are often the most destructive. Especially in the Northeast, where home density near wild or undeveloped land is extremely high relative to the rest of the country. Our forests tend to be dense and we have millions of homes in close proximity to potentially flammable vegetation.
Most of our suburban and rural neighborhoods were not planned with fire in mind. We have learned alot about how to reduce fire risk to homes out West. It is critical to reduce fuels around homes to keep them safe. If we see drought conditions persisting, folks in the Northeast might want to rethink tolerance for trees and vegetation near homes. The DEC Firewise program recommends keeping everything within 30 feet of your home lean, clean, and green. If you want to go further, taking steps to harden your home can be really helpful. This includes things like fire-resistant building materials, not attaching wooden fences to your home, and removing branches and debris from gutters. When you next replace your roof, consider what materials you are using.
We also know from our work out West that municipal water supplies can be profoundly threatened by fire. For example, following the 2011 Las Conchas Fire in New Mexico, increased sediment loads in the Rio Grande far downstream caused the city of Albuquerque to shut down its water intake for more than 2 months. The Catskills provide drinking water to more than 8 million people in New York City. If fire risk increases in the region, we must be proactive about protecting our drinking water.
Many forests in the West are adapted for fire. Is the same true here in the Northeast?
From historical records, we know that fires have been a component of northeastern forests for millennia. There is a history of Indigenous burning pre-European settlement. White settlers also started many fires. For example, the Great Fire of 1903 burned 600,000 acres in the Adirondacks and Catskills. When the US Forest Service began a fire suppression and exclusion policy, eastern forests followed a very different trajectory from western forests. Out west, we hear about how fire suppression led to an accumulation of fuels that increased fire risk. Here, we saw our forests transition from oak woodlands that needed fire to moist, less flammable temperate deciduous forests. But even deciduous litter will burn in the fall if it's dry enough.
Are Northeastern state and local governments prepared for this level of fire?
The scale of operation needed to manage wildfires is not something we are used to in the Northeast. Take the case of the Jennings Creek Fire. Rangers led suppression efforts with the help of hundreds of people — including six state agencies, dozens of volunteer fire departments from across the state and beyond, and 18 wildland firefighters. The Chief Mountain Hotshots were flown in from the Blackfeet Indian Reservation. If fires like this become a more regular occurrence, firefighting departments will likely need more resources, infrastructure, and support to adapt. One silver lining is that we have the opportunity to be proactive and get ahead of it here, using what we've learned in the West. It will be incredibly important to collaborate and share knowledge.
Rain finally came to the region at the end of November. Will this bring things under control?
The rain certainly helps, but it hasn't been enough to reverse the drought. Many parts of New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts are still facing rain deficits. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting that the drought will persist into the winter. Reservoirs remain well below average levels. New York City has preemptively cancelled New Year’s Eve fireworks in Central and Prospect Parks due to concerns about fire risk.
For now, we’ll have to continue being fire-conscious. More rain and snow are needed to replenish our ecosystems. We really need a return to normal soil moisture and hydrologic conditions before spring, which tends to be the typical fire season in the Northeast.
